Big beautiful Trump pumps [the US market] whilst Musk gathers dust
EV growth accounts for 48% of the increase in car registrations globally and 68% in Europe.
Good morning. You can get so tired of winning. At least if you’re Turkey, Germany, Spain, Chile, Brazil, Ireland, Singapore, Czechia, Poland and the UK or lots of other places. Oh, and the US, for now.
Let’s dive in. Don’t forget you can always explore the data yourself…
The numbers, in brief
First, the top-line figures. The global market is still growing. New AutoMotive’s preferred metric to gauge the health of global battery electric (BEV) sales is a rolling 12 month total (which avoids any seasonal fluctuations in the highly seasonal auto market). BEV registrations grew by 13.5% on this basis - compared with a rise of 4.4% for the car market as a whole, meaning that battery electric accounted for 48% of registration growth globally. The market share of BEVs hit a new all-time high of 17.2% this month.
31 of the 41 markets we monitor saw an increase in EV registrations on a 12 month rolling basis, whilst the same number saw an August increase in registrations on the same month last year. 9 of the 10 countries to see the fastest increase in registrations last month were in the EU. This shows that despite a rearguard industry effort to dilute emissions standards, organic growth in demand - and manufacturer efforts to boost it further - are yielding results.
The top 10 markets remain unchanged on last month, when measured on a rolling 12 monthly basis. Having only recently reached 6th place, Turkey’s EV registrations last month exceeded those of 5th placed France last month - which in turn is falling further behind the UK and Germany.
Registrations of vehicles across all fuel types slid last month in the Netherlands and Belgium, but BEV market share has held up in the former and increased in the latter.
The top 20 countries by 12 month rolling market share is little changed, so this time we’ve shown BEV market share for the month of August 2025 itself. The Nordic and Benelux nations took 7 of the top 10 places, alongside Singapore and China, whilst Ireland grabbed 10th place. Higher income European countries make up most of the rest of the top 20, though Turkey’s market share exceeded France and Germany.
Global Roundup
Asia
Registrations in China were flat again in August, with battery EVs once more taking 31% market share in (+3 on August 2024). PHEVs have also plateaued for the time being at 14-15%, whilst vehicles without a plug continue to account for around 55% of registrations. The apparent ending of state subsidies in some Chinese provinces may be a factor - it’s a behavioural phenomenon we’ve seen time and again as loss-averse consumers choose not to switch because of the saving they’ve missed, rather than the savings and benefits to come.
On present trends, battery electric market share in Turkey could catch up with China by 2027. But for now, the city-state of Singapore remains the poster-boy for the transition in Asia.
Japan was once mooted as a hub for electrification, way back when Nissan looked like an attractive investment. India continues to plan on being one, partnering with Suzuki - a firm which, incredibly, is only launching its first EV this year, almost 15 years after the introduction of the Leaf. Both countries continue to tread water on domestic EV growth.
The Americas
After a slow July, EV registrations for August in the United States built up towards an expected peak next month when the tax credit on new purchases expires under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Battery electric market share hit 10% for the first time and may go even higher next month, but a sharp downturn is to be expected for October.
Meanwhile momentum appears to be growing in Brazil and Chile, where battery electric market share has risen by 7-8% in the past 2 months. Both countries look set to break out beyond the innovators segment in the adoption curve in the coming months.
In contrast in Mexico, steady EV growth through to the end of 2024 has since given way to stagnation. It isn’t hard to see the causes of that: whilst car-making countries like (see above) Turkey and (see below) Czechia, Hungary and Poland have all seen domestic registrations surge in tandem with EV exports, Trump’s wars on trade and electrification have put paid to immediate hopes of export-led growth boosting domestic demand.
Europe
The straight line rise of 0.3 percentage points per month in Europe continued in August 2025. This increase might look modest, but in a rising market, battery EVs accounted for more than two-thirds of the increase in registrations. Furthermore, the majority of firms are now expected to be compliant with 2025-7 targets, as Europe glides towards the waypoint in the adoption curve when it breaks through to the early majority.
None of these are things you will read in a trade body press release.
This is reflected in growth at member state level, where alongside the usual Nordic and Benelux leaders, rapid growth is being seen in less expected markets. So Austria, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Portugal and the United Kingdom have all seen rolling 12 month growth of more than 20%; Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia and Slovenia have achieved more than 30%; meanwhile Denmark has chalked up a 40% increase, Cyprus and Poland more than 50%, and Czechia and Spain more than 60% on the past 12 months.
Many of these are small markets. In the EU, manufacturers care most about Spain, Italy, France and particularly Germany, which combined account for two-thirds of registrations. How are those markets doing?
As we highlighted above, Germany and Spain’s BEV demand is already growing fast, although their backstory is very different. Germany’s policy rollercoaster makes a mockery of efforts to show a rolling average - as disastrous results from early-to-mid 2024 drop out of the past 12 months, market share has reliably ticked up. However August’s BEV market share of 19.0% was the best result since December 2023. Spain, in contrast, started late and has seen less volatility, climbing steadily from mid-2024 onwards to reach a new high market share of 9.9% in August.
For Italy and France, the transition is proving more challenging. It is particularly acute in Italy, where a Government which is cautious about the switch and national brands which are yet to get fully on board with an attractive offer have fed a vicious circle.
For France, the national brands are less of a problem, with widely-welcomed models from Citroen, Peugeot and Renault. One challenge appears to be the stop-start nature and limited funding behind the social leasing programme, which causes consumers to pause purchases until the next round of funding becomes available (the next in September). By comparison the only support available to private buyers in the UK, the Electric Car Grant, is guaranteed until 2028/29.
Economic weakness is also likely to be a factor - economic growth has been sluggish since 2022 and consumer confidence has been falling through 2025.
However the UK’s growth has been only a little better and consumer confidence is similarly downbeat. The biggest driver of the difference between the UK and France appears to be that the UK’s EV policy - long-term stability in the incentives for cars bought via an employer, annual targets and making course adjustments early in 2025 rather than dragging discussions into the Autumn as the EU has done - is doing a considerably better job of focusing manufacturer attention on shifting the EVs that consumers want at a price they are willing to pay.
Top manufacturers
Finally, let’s take a brief look at manufacturer data for China alongside 9 European markets, including Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.
Tesla’s chairperson has suggested that Elon Musk’s switch to driving on the outside lane of the far right may not be the sole cause of its declining sales. The firm’s performance in China, where buyers might be supposed less sensitive to nationalist authoritarianism, suggests she may have a point - it’s the tired and outclassed products too. It’s the only firm in the top 5 to see registrations fall year-on-year. Tesla scraped third place in August itself over Wuling, but the surging sales of the China-US partnership suggests that this is strictly temporary and a temper tantrum will be needed to secure the CEO’s $1 trillion payout from his board of highly independent and not at all conflicted directors.
The same effect is clear in Europe, where Mercedes are the only firm to see registrations fall. The venn diagram overlap of Ola Kallenius and Elon Musk does not appear to include extreme nationalist agitation, but does take in a lack of new models from their respective firms.
Boring traditional firms like VW Group and BMW are already outselling Tesla on a rolling basis, as are Hyundai Group in August, whilst Stellantis are on course to overtake them soon.
Is this purely because Oliver Blume, Oliver Zipse, Jose Munoz and Antonio Filosa have resisted the lure of dabbling in far-right politics? Probably not - but all that time that could have been usefully invested in building a breeding compound, experimenting with horse tranquilisers and brawling with Treasury Secretaries seems to be going on developing better products. It’s paying dividends.
Global EV Tracker monitors passenger car registrations from 40+ markets representing over 80% of global car registrations, updated monthly. The countries we covered in this bulletin are: China, United States, India, Germany, Japan, Brazil, United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Poland, Belgium, Taiwan, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Portugal, Czechia, Switzerland, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, Slovenia, Singapore, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Cyprus, Iceland, and Malta.