EV market share is rising everywhere. Manufacturers deeply disappointed
Global EV Tracker: Insights from 40+ markets accounting for 85% of sales.
Welcome to the ninth monthly issue of New AutoMotive’s Global EV Tracker. This mail offers a summary of battery electric car sales up to the end of September 2024.
For more information, you can check out the Global EV Tracker dashboard - which allows you to produce customised analysis of sales, market share and manufacturers - at newautomotive.org/global-ev-tracker, or the button below. Our new country profile pages, offering an overview of country-by-country policies and sales, are available at the same link.
Simultaneously with this mailing, we are hosting a webinar for a first look at the 3rd quarter set of results. But you haven’t missed it! The slide deck and presentation will be available later today at the link below.
You’re receiving this because you signed up to receive updates from us. Changed your mind? Not a problem, you can change your preferences or opt out of emails here.
Let us know what you think of this new format at general@newautomotive.org.
The Headlines
In September 2024:
1.05 million battery-electric vehicles were sold, a decrease of 98,000, or 10.2% on September 2023.
Adding the greatest proportion of sales was China, with an increase of 82,000, or 13% on the same month last year.
However several medium and large European markets chalked up impressive increases, with the UK registering 10,000 more sales - an increase of 23%. Meanwhile Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Norway and Portugal saw sales rise more than 30%, whilst Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands and Spain all registered increases of more than 50%, and Czechia more than 100%.
Germany finally broke its long decline following the chaotic withdrawal of subsidies at the beginning of the year, seeing an increase in battery electric sales of 8.7% on September 2023 levels.
25 markets grew battery electric sales on September 2023 levels, whilst 17 markets declined. However the only major markets to see a fall in battery electric sales were the US (which nevertheless had a record quarter, see below) and France (which increased EV market share in a falling market).
Battery electric market share was 18.6% in September 2024 - more than one in six and up from 16.5% on September 2023 levels.
Meanwhile, helped by the recent surge in Chinese plug-in hybrid volumes, vehicles with a plug now account for 26.7% of cars - more than one in four, and up from 21% in Q3 last year.
In the 12 months to September 2024:
10.6m battery-electric vehicles were sold, an increase of 1.2 million or more than 12% on the 12 months to September 2023. The increases were primarily driven by China, which saw new battery electric sales rise 930,000, and the US which achieved 147,000 additional sales.
The US’s achievement was especially encouraging - after a slight slowdown earlier in the year, battery electric sales over quarter 3 set a new record of 344,000, beating the EU for the first time.
16.2% is the battery electric market share (up 1.2 points on the preceding 12 months), whilst the combined market share of battery electric and plug in hybrids was 22.5% (up 2.9 points on the preceding 12 months).
Historical EV Sales Growth
EV sales are currently ahead of the same point for previous years.
Market Indicators
What are the biggest markets for EV sales?
The 10 biggest EV markets, both in September 2024 and in the 12 months to September 2024, are shown below.
China and the US are the two largest markets for EVs, as they are for other vehicles. After a strong few months, the UK is now likely to finish ahead of France as the fourth largest market, after Germany.
Benelux and Scandinavian countries make up the next 5 places in the top 10 after strong sales in recent months. Turkey is the next highest placed non-European country, with 94,000 sales in the past 12 months placing it 10th.
Where are we seeing the greatest growth?
Emerging markets of Chile, Brazil and Mexico continue to show the fastest growth in the 12 months to to September 2024 on levels seen in the previous year, although all have faded in recent months.
Smaller Central and Eastern European economies account for 6 of the other 7 fastest growing markets in the 12 months to September 2024, compared with the previous 12 months. Alongside Malta, Czechia, Cyprus and Hungary below, Denmark and Belgium scored a 50% increase in annual sales.
Thailand is 10th, with 46% growth, compared with the 12 months to September 2023.
Which markets have been slowest?
Amongst the worst performing economies, Romania, Iceland and New Zealand are regular fixtures. All 3 countries slashed and burned incentives, whilst Iceland and New Zealand simultaneously introduced road pricing which singled out battery electric vehicles.
Newly arrived in the bottom five, Indian Ministers’ public ruminations that the transition to EVs may be able to support itself without new incentives are being rapidly disproved by collapsing consumer interest.
Finally Finland has been struggling with a slow economy and falling car sales - whilst battery electric sales have fallen slower than diesel, they are still sliding relative to petrol cars.
Where is EV market share highest?
The Nordic and Benelux nations hold 8 of the top 10 placings for market share in the past month, and 7 of the top 10 places over the past 12 months, having reached well into early majority audiences with generous and stable domestic incentive regimes.
China is by far the biggest market in the top 10.
The UK was 14th highest last month, with 20.8%, after Malta, Switzerland and Austria.
Continent Analysis
Asia
ICE vehicle sales in China fell by 18% in September 2024 on September 2023 levels, maintaining the steep decline seen in August.
With the market share of ICE cars in China down from 66% to 54%, plug in hybrid cars have picked up about two thirds of the slack, doubling from 8% to 16%, whilst battery electric vehicles grew more slowly, from 26% market share in September 2023 to 29% in September 2024.
The surge in PHEVs only began in Q2 of this year, so it is unclear whether it will be maintained - nevertheless with an average range of 56 miles, the PHEVs being sold in China are working alongside battery electric cars to slash its oil dependency.
In Thailand battery electric sales reached 12% market share last month, a comparatively poor result. Nevertheless pure petrol and diesel fell steeply here too, from 72% market share in September 2023 to 60% just one year later, putting them on course to be eliminated altogether in 2030, although hybrids were the main beneficiaries.
Turkey’s battery electric market share held steady at 10% - similar steep declines in pure petrol and diesel are emerging here too, with the combined market share of petrol and diesel falling from 77% to 63% from July to September, with all time lows being set two months in a row.
India continues to drift dangerously, with market share of battery electric dropping below 1.5% for the first time in 18 months. Hopes of becoming an electric vehicle powerhouse are starting to look like pipedreams, without a boost to domestic demand.
Taiwan reached 13% market share last month, its joint best ever performance. Sales are always volatile, but following a record-breaking June, and July and August figures which beat previous years, we may be about to see Taiwan join China and Singapore (whose statistics were not available in time this month) break out of early adopter territory and into the early majority.
Finally Japan continues to delight in building and selling the cars that its neighbours increasingly don’t want to buy. Battery electric and plug in hybrid collectively accounted for a mortifying 3% market share last month. The future has never looked so exciting - as long as it’s not in Japan.
Top manufacturers
The Chinese EV market is so huge compared with the Singapore and India markets - the other Asian markets for which we have manufacturer data - that the top 20 for Asia is the top 20 for China. BYD again almost outsold Tesla 2-to-1 in September, with their best monthly sales of 2024. Of the other top 5 firms, Wuling specialise in mini-EVs, and Li in range-extended vehicles. Neither have yet expanded into overseas markets, although Aion is now selling in south east Asia and Mexico.
As owners of Volvo and Polestar, Geely are big overseas players now boosting sales domestically, whilst seventh-placed Zeekr are expanding into the Netherlands and Sweden, with a small trickle of Xpeng and Nio cars starting to find their way into Europe.
VW are out of the top 10 for the month, but hanging on when sales are counted over a 12 month period.
Europe
Whilst trade bodies have again painted September’s sales as doom and gloom, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. With the absence of effective supplier policies (manufacturers operating in the EU are still subject to 2020’s decarbonisation targets, which the vast majority of them met long ago) and the uncertainty bred by very public manufacturer lobbying for 2025’s targets to be weakened, we might expect the market share of EVs to be falling.
But 19 member states - including all of the top 10 car markets - saw market share of EVs increase on September 2023 levels last month. The figures are even more striking when we compare last month with August 2024: 25 EU member states sold a higher proportion of battery electric than the month before, with only Croatia and Estonia slipping backward.
Germany saw sales bounce back 2.8 percentage points to 16.5% battery electric in the month to September, whilst the other 3 largest EV markets - France, Belgium and the Netherlands - all saw market share rise by more than 4 percentage points to 20.1%, 38.3% and 38.4% respectively. Even laggards Spain and Italy made progress, reaching 7.6% and 5.1% respectively.
Outside the EU, Norway closes in on its 2025 ban with 96% EV market share.
The UK hit above 20% in the busy September, meaning that industry has now closed the gap on the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and will have a glut of credits, when credits from ICE and hybrid vehicle outperformance are taken into account.
8 European countries are now consistently reaching more than 30% market share and have - as a minimum - made big inroads into the early majority, where cost and convenience become the prime factors for buyers. A further 8 are consistently scoring 15 to 30%, with the UK, Portugal, Switzerland and Malta leading.
Top manufacturers
Top manufacturers for the European markets for which we have data, including non-EU states, is shown below. Tesla retains its grip on the European market, with sales in the 12 months to September more than 50% above second place BMW, and VW not far behind. These top 3 manufacturers look likely to outsell the next 7 in 2024.
No obvious other rival is on the horizon. BYD have been growing quietly, with just short of 25,000 sales over the past 12 months in the countries in our sample, but now have to navigate tariffs - in response to which Volvo and MG are both beginning to slide
On the subject of tariffs - these have begun to bite now that dealers have cleared old stock. We compared the market share of the top 4 Chinese-owned firms in the EU, which imposed tariffs in early July, and the UK which has not.
The market share of EVs produced by Chinese-owned makers in the EU for September has dipped sharply below the 12 month average. Meanwhile in the UK, Chinese manufacturer market share has risen slightly, but still remain some way below levels regularly reached during 2023.
Americas
Total US car sales were down in September on August levels, but the market share of battery electric cars rose again, albeit by just a smidgeon, from 8.8% to 8.9%. Still, it was another all time high. October is the final full sales month before the presidential and congressional elections, although buyers will have until the New Year to take advantage of tax credits before any prospect of Donald Trump taking office potentially chokes them off.
So large is the US market, that even with a market share in single figures, more battery electric vehicles were sold in Q3 than across the whole of the EU. Pure ICE (i.e. non hybrid) vehicles had a third consecutive month below 80% market share, although this figure is much higher than most other countries in our sample.
Turning to Central and South America, sales in Chile recovered to reach their second best every market share, but with 392 new battery electric vehicles, 2.2% of sales, there is a long way to go.
Brazil’s stunning growth has largely petered out, with market share stuck in the 2.0 to 3.5% range since December 2023.
Finally it’s a similar story in Mexico, where market share is stuck in the even lower 1.0 to 2.5% band. Mexico’s immediate EV future also hangs in the balance of the US election, as differences in the level of enthusiasm for swingeing tariffs between the candidates will weigh heavy on investment decisions.