New analysis: assessing the impact of changes to the UK's ZEV mandate
Our latest briefing, exploring the impact of changes to the ZEV mandate on UK EV registrations
On 7 April, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced changes to the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate—framed as a move to support the car industry through global trade turbulence.
But behind the headlines, these changes signal a step back in the UK’s electric vehicle transition.
Our latest briefing unpacks what was announced, and what it means for EV sales, emissions and infrastructure investment. We find:
Little immediate impact in 2025, with anticipated EV market share for Q2-4 revised down only slightly—from 23.3% to 22.7%.
Much greater uncertainty from 2026–2029, as looser rules around hybrids and emissions credits open the door to weaker compliance.
A looming cliff edge in 2030, when exemptions end and much tougher targets come into force—all at once.
Higher emissions, more cost for drivers, and a blow to investor confidence, especially for those in charging and grid infrastructure.
If clarity was once the biggest strength of the UK’s EV policy, it’s now playing second fiddle to complexity and greater uncertainty.
Comments? Questions? Feedback? Let us know - we’d love to hear from you.
Kind regards
Team New AutoMotive
It is interesting to read the 'editorial conclusions' which I do not share. Unfortunately they are worded simplistically similar to what is 'media talk' which blames this move by the elected government for everything possible when with sensible analysis this event would not be to blame for everything quoted!
The car manufacturers are themselves,mostly,to blame for not meeting the challenge of producing 'affordable,mainstream (£15,000-£25,000) BEV cars' when OTHER global competitors have! It is the luddite culture to blame and mass advertising monies by the 'filthy' fossil fuel industry and the likes of Toyota being run by those that vehemently hate BEVs !
I am NOT an admirer of Melon Mush as a person BUT he has got the world-wide BEV car situation to where it is, by 'starting years ago' !
Thanks, very informative.
Would you mind linking to the government publication from yesterday with all the details?
All I can see on the DfT/OZEV website is the press release, which I hasn't got as much as you've written about. Is that right?