October marks record run for UK EV sales
Petrol car registrations nose dive; Carmakers' EV sales comfortably above mandated levels; UK no longer dependent on Tesla for strong EV sales figures; Electric vans enjoy strong October
Welcome to the latest edition of Electric Car Count, your monthly update on electric car, van, motorbike and HGV sales in the UK - and the most up-to-date, free, comprehensive and detailed publication covering the EV transition in the UK. Let’s dive in!
October was the worst in a very bad run of months for sales of purely petrol-fuelled cars
Prior to the pandemic, carmakers used to sell around 1.5 million petrol cars in any 12 month period in the UK. In the 12 months to the end of October 2024, that figure stood at just over 700,000. After a period of recovery from the pandemic, petrol sales have started falling again. If they follow at the same rate as sales of diesel cars did, the government may find that consumers stop buying new petrol and diesel cars long before any government action to end sales.
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Electric cars are enjoying a run of strong sales
Registrations of electric cars are growing strongly, again. October was the third month in a row with a market share of above 20%.
October was merely the acceleration of a trend that has developed across 2024, with petrol sales increasingly lagging on their historical trend. The growth in the car market is coming from the cleaner end of things, with hybrids and fully-electric cars exhibiting the strongest growth.
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Is the UK parting company with Musk’s Tesla?
It’s fair to say that Elon Musk is no fan of the UK, just now. Perhaps the feeling is mutual? Tesla usually tops the charts of UK electric car sellers, but not in October. Caution is advised when reading too much into one month’s sales data, but there were some big moves in October compared to last month. Volkswagen are clearly making a big push to get electric cars out of the doors, with impressive sales growth. Similarly, Peugeot, who are staking a dominant position for themselves in the electric car as well as the electric van market.
ZEV mandate facing credit oversupply
The UK operates a complex market-based mechanism to incentivise carmakers to sell more electric cars, known as a Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate. The scheme works using a system of tradable credits that rewards carmakers that sell more than a set number of electric cars, with additional rewards available for carmakers who sell more fuel efficient hybrids. This latter reward reduces the number of fully electric cars that need to be sold to comply with the regulation.
Carmakers have been selling more hybrids and plug-in hybrids, as well as improving the fuel economy of their petrol and diesel cars. That means they only need to hit a real target 18.1% of all cars being fully electric for sales to be in line with mandate levels. We predict that the UK will finish the year on 19% of car sales being fully electric.
Electric van sales in bumper month
Electric van sales strengthened in October, taking 8.3% of the market. This likely reflects the effect of commercial fleet deliveries in 2024 negotiated since the introduction of the ZEV mandate targets at the start of the year. We expect sales to further strengthen over the remainder of the year.
Northern Ireland votes to join ZEV mandate
The UK’s electric car regulation received a vote of confidence from the Northern Ireland Assembly, which voted for the province to join the ZEV mandate targets in 2025. Currently, the UK’s ZEV mandate applies only to sales of cars taking place in GB. When NI joins in 2025, it will help people across all parts of the UK access cheaper electric cars.
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