Still gaining, still roaring

Whilst the US loses momentum, globally the EV transition continues to pick up pace.

Good afternoon. Everything is fine, no flatlining to see here.

Let’s dive in. Don’t forget you can always explore the data yourself…

The numbers, in brief

First, the top-line figures. The global market is still growing. New AutoMotive’s preferred metric to gauge the health of global BEV sales is a rolling 12 month total (which avoids any seasonal fluctuations in what is ultimately a highly seasonal market). The market share of BEVs rose two thirds of a percentage point in just one month, with the annual rate of growth accelerating from 8.9% to 10.7%.

31 of the 42 markets we monitor saw an increase in EV sales on a 12 month rolling basis, and 33 saw an increase on July 2024 levels. Areas of high growth are distributed across the world, from South America through the Far East, Near East and all parts of Europe.

China and (for now) the US remain by far the largest markets. The other members of the top 10 are mostly European, but Turkiye’s journey is a sign of how quickly emerging markets can transition with supportive Government policy - from 13th in 2023 and 10th in 2024 to the the 6th largest battery EV market today.

Remember how we used to be spooked by the adoption curve? Countries seemed to get stuck at 16% market share, right on the cusp of breaking through from early adopters to the “early majority”. 17 countries have now broken through that barrier.

Global Roundup

Asia

Registrations in China took stock this month, with battery EVs taking 31% market share in July (+4 on July 2024), whilst PHEVs fell back slightly to 15% (-2 on the same month last year). India continues its 3-wheel-electrification-good, 4-wheel-bad policy, whilst we’ve long ago run out of polite adjectives to describe Japan’s progress. Last month, more EV were registered in Portugal, a country with one-twelfth of the population, than in the land of the rising sun and the failing OEM.

The Americas

Worryingly EV registrations in the United States appear to be stalling ahead of the expiry of tax credits on 30 September. Normally the well-signposted ending of subsidies causes a mini-boom as consumer race to beat the deadline. For the US registrations were flat on July 2024 levels. This suggests that there might be real doubt amongst consumers about the long-term sustainability of running an EV - unsurprising, given the example of recent bizarre Congressional efforts to introduce £250 per annum federal taxes targeted specifically at EVs.

There was better news in Brazil where EV registrations accounted for 3% market share for the third month in a row, the first time this has been achieved since early 2024. But this market, like Mexico and Chile, need policies such as a ZEV mandate to encourage sellers to broaden the appeal of their EV offerings combined with either free trade or efforts to develop a local EV manufacturing base.

Europe

Whilst carmakers’ trade bodies continue to repeat the hand-wringing mantra that sales are not where they need to be, consumers seem to be merrily ignoring them. Sales have tracked upwards on a straight line of close to 0.3% per month in market share. The EU as a whole is therefore about to “cross the chasm” in the adoption curve and break through into the early majority.

This is reflected in growth at member state level, where alongside the usual Nordic and Benelux leaders, rapid growth is being seen in less traditional markets. So Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia have all, like Belgium, seen rolling 12 month growth of more than 20%; Greece has achieved more than 30% alongside the Netherlands; whilst Poland has matched Denmark with more than 40% growth.

As we forecast, registrations are finally picking up in Spain too. It’s beginning to almost look like an S-curve.

Although Denmark still offers the best likeness, thanks to complete policy stability.

Top manufacturers

Finally, let’s take a brief look at manufacturer data for China alongside 9 European markets, including Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.

Tesla registrations continue their slide in both markets whilst - stymied by tariffs - BYD have only recently entered the top 10 in Europe, despite outselling the competition by 2-to-1 in China.

Geely are the only other firm represented in both markets, although their quite different product offering in China is proving considerably more compelling than the slightly tired Volvos on offer in Europe. Outside the top 10, VW continue to slide in China, with BEV registrations down 40% on a rolling 12 month basis, whilst SAIC’s registrations are down more than 25% in Europe - the exact reverse of the two firms’ fortunes in their home markets.

Is this the sound of a car market which is being deglobalised? Probably not - next year BYDs will be the first of the new Chinese firms to circumvent tariffs by being made in the EU and in Turkey, which has access via a customs union. Meanwhile Leapmotor, XPENG and Chery registrations are also all growing fast.

So this is not the end or even the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. It will defeat even the very stable genius of Donald Trump to end the electrification and interconnection of European and Chinese car markets.

Global EV Tracker monitors passenger car registrations from 40+ markets representing over 80% of global car registrations, updated monthly. The countries we covered in this bulletin are: China, United States, India, Germany, Japan, Brazil, United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Poland, Belgium, Taiwan, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Portugal, Czechia, Switzerland, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, Slovenia, Singapore, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Cyprus, Iceland, and Malta.